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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."